Thursday, May 30, 2024, will go down as a landmark date in the history of the United States.
Donald Trump’s criminal conviction was arguably expected; staunch MAGA supporters have long suspected him to be the victim of a politically motivated witch hunt, while the former president’s fiercest critics have labelled him guilty for years.
Even still, the guilty verdict was no less shocking when it was announced just after 5pm EST.
What happens in the long run is anyone’s guess, but, importantly, the conviction bares no theoretical impact on Trump’s ability to run for President. He is a natural-born citizen of the United States, has been a resident for at least 14 years, and is over 35 years old. There’s solid evidence that this is benefitting Trump in the immediate term, however, with him seeing a massive 6-point increase in his approval rating after the conviction. In other words, on net basis, Americans are seeing the conviction as resulting from a politically motivated witch hunt.
Additionally, Trump saw donations pour in so fast after the verdict that it crashed WinRed’s website. It’s since been revealed that the Trump campaign shattered a fundraising record, bringing in an incredible $34.8 million. That sure beats the $25 million that Biden brought in for his star-studded fundraiser back in March that included Barack Obama and Bill Clinton that the liberal media celebrated.
The more prudent question is this: how will the Republican nominee’s conviction affect his standing among American voters? The polling before the trial suggested that Biden will carry the youth vote – but by a thin margin that’s historically low for a Democrat. Among those aged 18-24, a group that overwhelmingly votes Democrat, Biden’s support tanked 25 points from being +32 to only +7. It’ll be interesting to track this to see how it changes.
Similarly, other polling pre-pandemic suggests that Trump will garner the largest share of the black vote since Richard Nixon in his blowout victory.
The bookies have Trump as a greater favorite as Biden since the conviction, with Biden now at +168 (meaning someone would need to bet $100 to win $168), while Trump is at -110 (meaning one needs to bet $110 to win $100). Put in percentages, the odds imply Biden has a 37.3% chance of winning the 2024 election, while Trump has a 52.4% chance.
For some, Trump’s conviction will be the final straw, but there doesn’t appear to be many Americans in that boat.
Regardless, insufferable liberals were happy to gloat about what will likely be a short-lived victory.
On the other hand, many have pledged their support for the Republican in light of the jury’s conviction.
And for others, Trump’s conviction has done little to change their minds on the upcoming Presidential Election.
To be fair, people like that were unlikely to have voted for Trump under any circumstances.
Only time will tell if Trump’s conviction changes the race for the White House – but so far it’s looking like a positive.
What’s your view? Has the trial changed how you plan to vote this November, or does it have no effect at all? Let us know in the comments below.
