For the past 20 years, the Democrat Party presumptive nominee has led the Republican alternative in the Real Clear Polling (RCP) poll immediately after the Independence Day weekend.
Of course, this has not always led to a Democrat taking the White House. Hilary Clinton led Donald Trump by 4.7 percentage points at this stage in the 2016 electoral cycle but would later go on to lose the election. Likewise, John Kerry was unable to retain his two-point lead over incumbent George W. Bush in 2004 with the Republican emerging triumphant to secure four more years in the White House.
This year, however, it’s different.
Former president Trump leads incumbent Joe Biden by four points in the latest presidential election poll, which only narrows down to three when just the GOP and Democrat candidates are considered.
Needless to say, the debate didn’t help Biden much.
Ultimately, a poll is nothing more than that – a poll. The only one that matters, at the end of the day, is the one on election day which decides the presidency.
Of course, they can also be skewed to favor arguments for one candidate over another.
Nevertheless, such a historic discrepancy can only hurt the Democrats. Doubts over Biden’s fitness to run for president (let alone serve) have grown in recent weeks. Truth be told, attempts to calm the storm by the White House have hardly been met with resounding acclaim either.
Should the party want to change its candidate, it has only one month left before Biden is confirmed as the presidential nominee. The question many are wondering: if not Biden, then who?
