Author name: Common Defense

News

Military Barracks Left to Rot as $285 Billion Maintenance Backlog Explodes, GAO Finds

The War Department is not requesting enough money to cover military installation maintenance and major improvement needs, according to a Government Accountability Office report. Years of underfunding helped drive the estimated maintenance backlog to a staggering $285 billion in fiscal 2025.

Department policy called for funding 90 percent of estimated maintenance requirements, but the military services have continued requesting only about 80 percent. That persistent gap has allowed repairs to pile up while troops and installation commanders deal with the consequences.

“[The War Department] has not fully determined the risks to its mission and to the quality of life of its personnel as a result of not meeting its funding goal,” the report states. “Fully determining and communicating these risks would provide better information to [the War Department] and Congress to weigh budget priorities.”

GAO investigators examined Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force installations throughout the United States and its territories. Their findings describe a broad readiness problem rather than a handful of isolated buildings suffering from bad plumbing or peeling paint.

A 2014 memorandum from the Under Secretary of War for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics established a goal of funding routine maintenance at 90 percent or more of the amount calculated through the Facilities Sustainment Model. More than a decade later, the services are still failing to meet that standard.

The Army, Navy and Air Force requested roughly 80 percent of their requirements during fiscal years 2017 through 2020. The Marine Corps took an even sharper turn, cutting its requested sustainment funding from 80 percent to 40 percent over the past five fiscal years.

Marine leaders instead directed more money toward facility restoration and modernization projects, according to the report. That trade might produce new ribbon cutting ceremonies, but it also leaves existing buildings deteriorating while routine repairs are deferred.

“By requesting less funding for installation maintenance and improvement projects than its models and experts recommend, [the War Department] has chosen to accept some degree of risk that mission or quality of life will be negatively affected,” the report says. In plain English, officials knowingly accepted the possibility that troops and readiness would suffer.

GAO has previously found that barracks maintenance was “chronically neglected,” resulting in miserable conditions for enlisted service members. A 2023 investigation found that thousands of troops were living in substandard barracks, including facilities with potentially serious health and safety hazards.

That is not merely a quality of life complaint for bureaucrats to file away. Mold, broken ventilation, unreliable plumbing and unsafe living spaces can damage morale, harm health and distract service members from training and operational duties.

Of the 31 recommendations GAO issued in 2023, the department had implemented 19 as of April 2026. Several important recommendations remain unresolved, including the creation of a clear oversight structure for military barracks.

The report also identified serious trouble hiring and retaining skilled maintenance workers, especially at remote and isolated installations. Competition from private employers, along with federal hiring rules, pay limitations and work eligibility practices, has made already difficult staffing problems worse.

Military departments have not fully measured the extent of those workforce shortages and have not developed adequate plans to overcome them. Without electricians, plumbers, heating specialists and other skilled employees, even properly identified repairs can remain stuck in bureaucratic limbo.

Installations also depend on maintenance work order systems to track problems and responses, but GAO found that the available data is limited and generally unreliable. That means department leaders cannot confidently measure whether repairs are timely, effective or consistent across the services.

GAO issued 13 new recommendations, including stronger departmental oversight, a fuller assessment of risks created by underfunding and improvements to maintenance data reliability. The department fully or partially agreed with 12 recommendations and rejected one.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth now faces the cleanup of a maintenance culture that too often treated troop housing like an afterthought. Congress and the Pentagon cannot credibly preach readiness while service members sleep in failing barracks and a $285 billion repair bill gathers dust.

News

U.S. Blows Up Lost $23 Million Reaper After Middle East Hard Landing

A malfunctioning MQ-9A Reaper became a $23 million battlefield demolition target after an electrical failure killed its newly installed engine during a lengthy mission over the Middle East last August.

The remotely operated aircraft had already spent roughly 19 hours in the air when its fuel system shut down.

Its crew fought for more than seven minutes to keep the powerless Reaper flying, but the aircraft was already doomed.

Operating from Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota, the pilot guided the descending drone for nearly 10 minutes.

The crew made two attempts to restart the engine before executing what investigators called a “forced landing.”

The landing buckled the Reaper’s landing gear inside an undisclosed country within the region controlled by US Central Command.

Rather than attempt to haul the crippled aircraft out, American forces removed critical components and destroyed what remained.

The Air Force investigation stated that the aircraft was not recovered, but “based on the circumstances and the location of its landing, sensitive equipment was recovered from the [Reaper] and its remaining wreckage was demolished on site.”

The report offered no details about how troops eliminated the wreckage. American forces, however, commonly use explosives or airstrikes to erase disabled aircraft before enemy fighters, intelligence services, or Iranian backed militias can start picking through valuable technology.

Coast Guard to Receive First MQ-9 Drones in Homeland Defense Boost
The U.S. Coast Guard will use about $266 million of the funds it received in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” to procure the service’s own MQ-9 Alpha long-range unmanned aerial systems. (Senior Airman Raya Feltner/Air Force)

That approach was also used after two MC-130 special operations aircraft were lost in April during the rescue of an F-15 weapons officer inside Iran. When sensitive American hardware cannot come home, reducing it to scrap is generally better than gifting it to the enemy.

Investigators traced the Reaper’s fatal failure to a damaged electrical wire within the fuel system.

The board concluded that the wire probably developed a short after rubbing against another component, a process described in the report as “chaffing.”

Once the damaged wire caused the fuel system to shut down, the crew had no realistic way to save the aircraft.

The new engine could not run without fuel, leaving the operators to manage the Reaper’s final descent and find the least disastrous place to put it down.

The mission was the drone’s first flight after receiving a new engine during a scheduled 3,000 hour maintenance overhaul.

Congress Orders Comprehensive Review of Drone Work's Mental Health Toll on Troops
Members of 119th Maintenance Squadron work on an MQ-9 Reaper drone during the Northern Strike 2025 exercise. Air National Guard Photo by Sr. Master Sgt. Michael Knodle.

Despite that timing, investigators found no proof that the engine replacement itself damaged the wire or caused the failure.

Col. Brian Desautels, president of the crash investigation board, wrote, “No evidence indicates that maintenance procedures executed were a factor in this mishap.” Desautels is a career C-130 rescue pilot who commands an Air Force rescue group at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia.

At least some maintenance on the aircraft was performed by private contractor Amentum.

The company provides “Comprehensive Engine Management System support; Aerospace Ground Equipment (AGE) and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) maintenance” for the Air Force’s MQ-9A fleet.

The investigation did not identify whether contractor personnel or Air Force maintainers completed the engine swap.

Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Losses Hit Hard as Iran Conflict Slashes Fleet Strength
An MQ-9 Reaper flies a training mission over the Nevada Test and Training Range on July 15, 2019. (Airman 1st Class William Rio Rosado/U.S. Air Force)

It also noted that the Reaper was not subjected to a Functional Check Flight or Operational Check Flight after the replacement.

Air Force regulations generally require those shakedown flights following engine changes on most crewed aircraft, but the rule does not apply to MQ-9s. The crash may prompt fresh questions about why a $23 million combat aircraft can receive a new engine and immediately head into a 19 hour operational mission without such a check.

The report also revealed an intense operational tempo for the pilot and sensor operator as US operations expanded around Iran.

Together, they had completed almost 60 missions during the previous 90 days, far more flying than many crews of manned Air Force aircraft typically record.

During the 30 days before the crash, the pilot flew 19 missions while the sensor operator completed 23.

MQ‑9 Reaper Drone Crowned the Unmanned 'MVP' in 'Epic Fury' as Air Force Faces Budget Battle
An MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle flies a combat mission over southern Afghanistan, 29 November 2008 (Lt. Col. Leslie Pratt)

Those numbers illustrate how heavily Reaper crews and aircraft have been employed throughout the region.

The Air Force maintains more than 200 MQ 9 aircraft, but roughly 40 MQ-9As have crashed since hostilities with Iran increased in 2025, according to the Aviation Safety Network. Most were reportedly shot down over Iran or Africa, making this loss a mechanical casualty rather than an enemy kill.

An earlier account incorrectly called the aircraft a Predator.

The aircraft involved was an MQ-9A Reaper, and once its engine went silent, its crew could only land it, strip it, and ensure America’s enemies received nothing useful.

News

U.S. Navy Spearheads Allied Push for Powerful Next Generation SeaSparrow

The United States Navy is spearheading a multinational drive to develop a next generation Evolved SeaSparrow missile capable of protecting allied warships from an increasingly dangerous mix of aerial threats.

The effort brings together 12 nations through the NATO SeaSparrow Project Office consortium.

According to a Navy Sources Sought notice, the consortium wants a SeaSparrow variant that can operate across participating fleets rather than remain tied to a single nation or platform.

Responses from interested contractors are due Oct. 19.

The proposed NSV SeaSparrow is expected to confront threats ranging from slow aircraft to high speed missiles diving toward ships.

The Navy said the weapon “should have capability against current and future threat classes spanning a variety of threat characteristics including velocity (low-speed to high-speed), altitude (sea skimming to high diver), maneuverability (non-maneuvering to high Gravitational (G)-Force maneuvers), and signatures.”

That broad requirement reflects the ugly reality facing modern naval forces, particularly as hostile powers invest heavily in drones, cruise missiles and sophisticated antiship weapons.

A fleet air defense system must now distinguish and destroy multiple threats approaching from different directions, altitudes and speeds.

The missile is also intended to help defend ships against massed salvos, a scenario designed to overwhelm limited interceptor inventories and shipboard sensors.

It must continue operating even when adversaries deploy electronic jamming or other countermeasures.

According to the notice, the weapon “should be able to work in complex natural, contested, Radio Frequency (RF), Electro-Optical (EO), and/or Infrared (IR) environments.”

In plain English, the missile cannot afford to become confused when the electromagnetic battlefield gets crowded and the enemy starts playing dirty.

“The missile should have the capability to discriminate and resolve between multiple closely spaced targets and provide threat-track measurements to support missile guidance, navigation and lethality functions,” the Sources Sought notice continues.

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A MH-60S Seahawk from Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 5 flies by the USS Donald Cook in the Middle East on June 18, 2025. Navy photo.

“The missile should have the capability to handle threat countermeasures.”

A graphic included with the notice illustrated just how demanding that mission could become.

It appeared to show surface ships, including two aircraft carriers, under attack from roughly a dozen missiles and torpedoes, along with a hostile fixed wing aircraft and helicopter.

Friendly warships in the graphic appeared to use active illumination against some incoming threats, while SeaSparrow missiles relied on onboard sensors to intercept others.

That combination could give commanders greater flexibility when facing saturation attacks instead of forcing every engagement through one vulnerable targeting method.

The consortium also wants a modular architecture that can be upgraded as threats evolve. It is seeking “maximum rights in technical data, computer software, and computer software documentation (including source code), design artifacts, and interface specifications.”

“This approach will simplify future upgrades, promote interoperability across consortium platforms, and outpace evolving threats,” the Navy notice said.

That emphasis should also prevent participating governments from becoming needlessly trapped by proprietary systems when rapid battlefield improvements are required.

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An E/A-18G Growler prepares to launch from the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, June 11, 2026. (U.S. Navy)

Contractors are expected to offer a complete missile system, including the airframe, propulsion package, guidance equipment and software.

The missile can measure no more than 10 inches in diameter and must fit inside a Mark 41 vertical launch tube, preserving compatibility with widely fielded naval launch systems.

Technical information must be releasable across the full NATO SeaSparrow Consortium, which includes Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and the United States. Thailand and the United Arab Emirates also operate SeaSparrow weapons.

Raytheon currently manufactures the Block II RIM 162 Evolved SeaSparrow and doubled annual production to more than 350 missiles in 2025.

Demand is likely to remain strong as operations in the Persian Gulf burn through American and allied interceptor stocks while Iran launches missiles and drones.

Navy Super Hornet Blows Iranian-Bound Tanker Out of Action in Gulf of Oman
A U.S. sailor signals an F/A-18E Super Hornet on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, March 4, 2026. (U.S. Navy)

The Evolved SeaSparrow entered service in 2004 but traces its lineage to the AIM 7 Sparrow radar guided air to air missile developed during the 1950s.

Although the original Sparrow posted mixed results during the Vietnam War, the modern naval version was designed as an affordable shield against antiship missiles, aircraft, helicopters and fast attack boats.

The current missile has an estimated range of about 30 miles, giving warships a vital short range defensive layer.

A more adaptable successor would strengthen allied fleets while helping the Navy stay ahead of adversaries betting that sheer numbers can punch through American sea power.

News

Marine Corps Eyes More Commercial Vessel Charters as Pacific Experimentation Accelerates

The Marine Corps has added a specialized vessel named Matilda 1 to its growing Pacific toolkit, giving Marines another way to move personnel and equipment through shallow coastal waters.

The ship also represents a faster and potentially cheaper model for testing maritime capabilities without waiting years for a traditional acquisition program.

Matilda 1 is a 240 foot stern landing vessel capable of carrying troops from ships to shore or between remote beachheads.

Its shallow draft allows it to operate in littoral areas that many larger vessels cannot reach, an increasingly important capability as the Corps prepares for dispersed operations across the Pacific.

Australian company Seatransport designed the vessel, while Indonesian builder Karimun Anugrah Sejati handled construction.

Matilda 1 became operational earlier this year and is available to the Marine Corps through a three year charter with the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, managed by MariGuard LLC.

The arrangement is the second commercial vessel charter pursued by the Warfighting Lab since 2021.

It allows the Corps to examine its stand in forces concept without immediately pouring taxpayer dollars into an outright purchase or another lengthy government shipbuilding effort.

The charter “allows us to move a lot quicker,” Maj. Brandon Griffith, who leads Logistics, Science and Technology at the Warfighting Lab, said.

“That’s part of what we’re looking at, is the viability of that approach.”

Speed matters because the Navy’s Medium Landing Ship program remains under development while Marines need practical options now.

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A Marine holds a defensive position during Exercise Aurora 17 in Larbro, Sweden, Sept. 21, 2017. The Marine is assigned to Marine Rotational Force-Europe. The exercise includes forces from the United States and other nations to promote common regional security. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Careaf Henson

Matilda 1 is expected to “bridge the gap” until the planned vessels arrive, giving commanders a real platform for experimentation instead of another stack of briefing slides.

The Medium Landing Ship has been designated the McClung class in honor of Marine Maj. Megan McClung, who was killed while deployed to Iraq.

The Navy plans to acquire between 18 and 35 ships, but although the first vessel has been ordered, actual construction has not started.

Matilda 1 also carries a name rooted in the longstanding military relationship between the United States and Australia.

“After the pivotal Battle of Guadalcanal, the 1st Marine Division adopted the Australian folk song ‘Waltzing Matilda’ as an unofficial anthem,” Warfighting Lab officials said.

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Two Marines in the Basic Reconnaissance Course at Naval Amphibious Base Coronado, California. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Andrew Cortez.

“The name MATILDA 1 pays tribute to this shared legacy of mutual defense in the Pacific,” the officials added.

That heritage fits a vessel already working closely with Australian forces while preparing Marines for the unforgiving distances and geography of the region.

The Corps previously chartered the HOS Resolution, an offshore supply vessel used from 2021 through 2024 to help refine Medium Landing Ship concepts and designs.

Unlike Matilda 1, that older vessel required ramps for loading and unloading because it had not been purpose built for the mission.

“It was kind of our first, you know, dip in the toe in the water of this type of craft,” Griffith said.

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Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit train on aircraft and personnel recovery at Fort Novosel on April 16, 2026. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Brian Bolin Jr.

Matilda 1 now gives the Warfighting Lab a more specialized platform for determining what works before the government commits to bigger bills and permanent fleets.

Additional commercial charters are likely as the Marine Corps expands experimentation beyond the Pacific.

“This is a Pacific-focused charter now, but it’s a concept that we’re definitely looking to expand across the globe, across all the component commands,” Griffith said.

“A lot of what we try to do, experimentation-wise, may focus on one theater, but that doesn’t mean the lessons learned aren’t applicable across the board,” Griffith continued.

That approach could help the Corps adapt commercial designs for different commands while avoiding the usual bureaucratic crawl.

Marines and Japanese Forces Unleash Fierce Firepower in Island Warfare Drills
U.S. Marines with 12th Littoral Combat Team, 12th Marine Littoral Regiment, 3rd Marine Division, execute emplacement drills during a machine gun range in preparation for exercise Resolute Dragon 25 at Camp Hansen, Okinawa, Japan, Sept. 9, 2025. Resolute Dragon 25 is an annual bilateral exercise in Japan that strengthens the command, control, and multi-domain maneuver capabilities of U.S. Marines in III Marine Expeditionary Force and Japan Self-Defense Force personnel, with a focus on controlling and defending key maritime terrain. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Lucas Lu)

Although Matilda 1 began its lease period only in June, it has already demonstrated important capabilities alongside the Australian military near Darwin.

The vessel successfully landed on a 1:40 beach gradient, considered a moderate to gentle slope that would present serious problems for many conventional ships.

Matilda 1 is expected to travel next to Okinawa for exercises with III Marine Expeditionary Force.

Marines will test the vessel’s capacity, range, stability and operational value under conditions more closely resembling a potential Western Pacific mission.

The vessel has a reported range of 4,000 nautical miles and room for 84 shipping containers.

Its V shaped hull is also designed to handle rougher seas, offering a useful blend of beach access, cargo capacity and offshore endurance.

Marine Corps Tightens Rules to Curb Heat and Cold Casualties
Marine Lance Cpl. Andy Ngo takes a polar plunge during cold weather training at Camp Dawson, West Virginia, Feb. 10, 2026. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Amy Espinoza.

“Almost all amphibious vessel designs are incapable of long-distance offshore voyages,” Seatransport CEO Stuart Ballantyne told Baird Maritime in March.

“This vessel can achieve 85% of her designed speed in head sea state five and predominant waves in standard tradewind areas.”

For a Marine Corps preparing to operate from scattered islands and austere beaches, that combination could prove highly valuable.

Instead of waiting on slow procurement machinery to produce every answer, the charter lets Marines test available equipment, identify shortcomings and send lessons directly into future requirements.

The early performance has encouraged officials searching for an acceptable balance between capability and cost.

“It’s kind of the best of both worlds, if you will, and has proven out pretty well so far,” Griffith said.

News

Why America’s Military Urgently Needs a Seaplane in the Pacific

The United States military has gone without an operational seaplane since the Coast Guard retired the HU-16 Albatross in 1983.

That ended a 73 year run in which amphibious aircraft handled missions ranging from search and rescue to resupply across enormous stretches of open water.

Bringing that capability back deserves serious consideration as Washington prepares for possible conflict in the Pacific.

United States Pacific Command covers more than one hundred million square miles, representing over half the planet, and most of that sprawling territory is water.

Technology has made long distance flight faster and more reliable, but geography has not changed.

Aircraft still need fuel, maintenance, cargo hubs, and places to land, just as American aviators did during World War II.

Land is therefore precious, particularly when it can support an airfield or port.

Concrete runways are useful right up until enemy missiles turn them into expensive rubble, which planners must assume could happen during the opening hours of a major conflict.

The Marines’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations concept and the Army’s Multi Domain Operations doctrine both envision smaller forces spread across austere locations.

Those troops will require steady logistics despite having little infrastructure for conventional cargo aircraft, large ships, or traditional ground transportation.

The Marines are buying a new medium landing ship known as the McClung Class, while the Army faces pressure to modernize its amphibious fleet.

The services are also investing in aircraft such as the MV-22 Osprey and the coming MV-75, which can carry supplies farther than standard helicopters.

The Pentagon has already explored the return of the flying boat. In 2023, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency selected General Atomics and Aurora Flight Sciences to design the “Liberty Lifter,” a massive aircraft intended to operate primarily from water.

The proposed Liberty Lifter would have matched the C-17 cargo capacity of 170,900 pounds.

Around the same time, the Air Force was considering a C-130 floatplane that officials said could fly in 2023, but neither concept ultimately reached the water.

There is a legitimate concern that developing an entirely new seaplane could take so long that unmanned systems would overtake it.

Drones are already assuming several missions that once made amphibious aircraft indispensable, particularly surveillance and search operations over vast maritime regions.

The MQ-9B SeaGuardian can remain airborne for more than 40 hours while scanning thousands of square miles. It can help locate downed aviators or sailors, after which an unmanned surface vessel could be sent to assist with the rescue.

That concept has already moved beyond the drawing board. In June, an unmanned vessel participated in the response after an Apache went down while patrolling near Oman, demonstrating how machines can be sent into danger without risking another crew.

Unmanned aircraft and vessels are also being developed for resupply, medical evacuation, and submarine hunting.

Those are all missions associated with modern seaplanes, but many drone programs remain immature and cannot yet deliver the complete flexibility of a crewed amphibious aircraft.

The answer is not another bloated development marathon that burns years and mountains of taxpayer cash.

America should instead examine purchasing Japan’s proven US-2, an aircraft already operating in the Pacific and supported by a trusted ally.

Built by ShinMaywa Industries, the US-2 traces its design heritage to the Albatross once flown by the Coast Guard. It has a range of about 2,900 miles, reaches roughly 330 miles per hour, climbs to 30,000 feet, and needs only about 900 feet of water for takeoff.

The aircraft requires about 1,100 feet to land and can operate in waves reaching 10 feet.

Its fifth engine powers a compressor that blows air over the control surfaces, allowing the US-2 to remain controllable at speeds as low as 55 miles per hour.

Most importantly, Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force already flies the aircraft, and American service members have trained beside it.

Japan is also opening more of its military industry to exports, creating an opportunity for practical cooperation instead of another endless Washington science project.

A small American US-2 fleet would not replace cargo aircraft, ships, helicopters, or drones.

It would give commanders another flexible tool for rescue, limited resupply, medical evacuation, and operations from areas where intact runways may be unavailable.

The Pacific presents brutal distances, scarce infrastructure, and an enemy expected to target major logistics hubs immediately.

Buying a proven seaplane from Japan could fill a real operational gap now, before America discovers the hard way that water is everywhere and runways are not.

News

Gamblers Pocket $8 Million on Polymarket as Military Betting Raises Insider Alarm

A small circle of Polymarket gamblers collected roughly $8 million by wagering on military operations, according to researchers who say the remarkable winning streaks may point to people trading on protected information. About 150 accounts repeatedly placed unlikely bets and somehow landed on the correct outcome nearly every time.

The Anti Corruption Data Collective identified the accounts as “the most likely potential insiders” in a report released Thursday.

Their success, researchers argued, is difficult to explain through ordinary luck, educated guessing, or the usual online casino bravado.

“Traders acting on specialized, nonpublic information possess an edge that is valuable only within a limited set of markets, and that produces win rates difficult to attribute to luck,” the researchers wrote.

They focused on accounts displaying unusually narrow interests and suspiciously accurate wagers.

The report selected bettors based on ”The concentration of their betting within less than 100 markets and two topics, and unusual accuracy (over 75%) of their longshot bets.”

In other words, these were not casual gamblers bouncing from elections to sports before occasionally wandering into national security.

The same organization raised alarms in April after discovering that “longshot” bets concerning military operations succeeded 52% of the time.

That rate was reportedly four times higher than the success recorded across other categories of prediction markets.

The new investigation examined 152 accounts whose behavior appeared to “support our hypothesis that they are the most likely insiders.”

Researchers labeled these bettors “orcas,” describing them as “highly specialized, incredibly successful bettors” who concentrate on a limited collection of military markets.

The orcas were compared with “whales,” meaning big spenders who roam broadly across the platform and attempt to “devour enormous profits.”

Those players frequently profit at the expense of “small fish,” ordinary users who end up “losing out badly to the fat larger competition.”

Half of the suspected orca accounts placed their first unlikely military wager within two days of opening a Polymarket account.

They also committed larger sums more frequently to risky markets where the predicted event supposedly had little chance of occurring.

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A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bomber assigned to the 2nd Bomb Wing integrates with a U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II aircraft assigned to the Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 225, in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility, Oct. 15, 2025. (U.S. Air Force)

Collectively, the 152 wallets wagered about $2 million on military longshots and won 97.2% of the time, producing approximately $8 million in winnings.

That works out to more than $52,500 per wallet, which is quite a beginner’s streak for accounts that supposedly just wandered into the prediction business.

Despite wagering less overall than other groups, the orcas reportedly generated returns of 132%. Whales and small fish suffered losses reaching 2%, while at least half of the specialized accounts doubled their money.

The obvious concern extends far beyond whether a few gamblers found a clever way to fleece the crowd.

If military personnel or others with privileged access are betting on upcoming operations, they may be exposing American plans while creating a public trail that hostile intelligence services can monitor.

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A Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey takes off during flight operations aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer in the South China Sea, June 10, 2026.

Researchers found that orcas often entered markets first, followed by whales, possible automated accounts, and smaller bettors. One cited example involved unlikely wagers placed around Feb. 16, 2025, followed by additional activity 48 hours before reported United States strikes on Iran in March.

“Because every Polymarket trade is visible on a public blockchain in real time, an insider betting on confidential military information is effectively broadcasting that information to foreign adversaries,” the collective warned. “Copycat behavior amplifies these signals, making them virtually impossible to contain.”

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Secretary of War Pete Hegseth speaks at a press conference in Palm Beach, Fla., Jan. 3, 2026, with President Donald J. Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to discuss Operation Absolute Resolve in Caracas, Venezuela.

The findings arrive as American and Israeli authorities pursue cases involving military personnel accused of betting with sensitive information.

In April, Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a special operations soldier, was arrested and accused of earning more than $400,000 from wagers involving Venezuela and the American raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Van Dyke served aboard a Navy vessel that helped stage the operation, pleaded not guilty, and later asked a court to dismiss the case.

His lawyers contend prosecutors are stretching existing federal laws to cover conduct that Congress has not specifically addressed.

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Israeli authorities have also arrested several people suspected of using classified information for Polymarket wagers involving attacks in Iran and Yemen.

One officer offered the eyebrow raising defense that “The entire Israel Air Force is involved in gambling,” a claim that hardly reassures anyone responsible for operational security.

Prediction markets may be fashionable, but classified military planning is not casino currency.

If the researchers are right, federal investigators and the Department of War have a serious counterintelligence problem to confront before the next secret operation becomes just another profitable tip for online bettors.

News

Hundreds of U.S. Military Family Members Trapped as Qatar Camp Closure Looms

Hundreds of relatives of American troops and veterans remain caught in a grinding immigration backlog at Camp As Sayliyah in Qatar, according to AfghanEvac.

The holding facility is scheduled to close Sept. 30, yet residents reportedly have received no formal explanation of what happens next.

Among those waiting is the brother of former Marine Corps Gunnery Sgt. Sean Jamshidi.

His brother worked for the U.S. government during the Afghanistan war and has spent nearly two years at the camp while awaiting permission to enter the United States.

Jamshidi served America in some of the Marine Corps’ most respected assignments, including as an embassy security guard detachment commander and in psychological operations.

Despite that record, he now finds himself virtually powerless against the federal immigration machinery holding his brother in limbo.

AfghanEvac estimates that roughly 150 relatives of U.S. service members and veterans are stranded at Camp As Sayliyah.

Organization leaders remain uncertain whether the government will actually close the facility in September, but that uncertainty offers little comfort to families already worn down by years of waiting.

Jamshidi was born in Afghanistan and moved to the United States with his family when he was about five years old. He later joined the Marine Corps because he understood, from personal experience, what American freedom means and what life looks like when those protections do not exist.

“My mother, her dying wish is to see her son before she goes … so we’re trying to keep her healthy until my brother gets there,” Jamshidi said. “I want to continue shining a light on this crisis so the American people can hear these stories and demand change … This is not a partisan issue; it’s an American obligation.”

Iranian Missile Strike Hit U.S. Communications Dome at Al Udeid Air Base: Satellite Images Confirm
This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows damage, center, after an Iranian missile attack at the Al Udeid Air Base outside of Doha, Qatar, on June 25. (Planet Labs PBC)

AfghanEvac leaders say the wider visa freeze is affecting approximately 3,000 relatives of American military personnel. Many applicants, including Jamshidi’s brother, have already secured Chief of Mission approval, completed required interviews and cleared major procedural hurdles, leaving only the final paperwork.

As America marks five years since the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, refugee assistance organizations are pushing Congress to pass the Afghanistan TPS Act. The bipartisan legislation would establish temporary protected status for Afghan refugees and restart visa processing for eligible applicants.

Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general and bill cosponsor, supports using a discharge petition to force the measure out of committee and onto the House floor. “Most Americans want a decent, I would call it a Christian policy here, and that’s not what we’re getting,” Bacon said.

Bacon described himself as an “old Ronald Reagan-type Republican.” He added, “We have a moral obligation to those we serve with in Afghanistan, who served by our side, helping us out.”

U.S. to Construct Fast Boat Base in the Philippines Amid Rising Tensions with China
201019-A-FT904-1026 ARABIAN GULF (Oct. 19, 2020) A Mark VI patrol boat, left, attached to Task Force 56, Qatari Emiri Navy fast missile craft Q06, center, and U.S. Coast Guard patrol boat USCGC Adak (WPB 1333), perform scheme of maneuver tactics during Eastern Defender 20 in the Arabian Gulf Oct. 19. Eastern Defender 20 is the capstone in a series of bilateral maritime security exercises between the Qatar Armed Forces and U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, conducted to enhance interoperability and war-fighting readiness, fortify military-to-military relationships and advance operational capabilities of all participating units. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Timothy Clegg)

Camp As Sayliyah became an extended waypoint for Afghans evacuated by the United States in 2021 and has received more than 1,000 refugees. Residents face restricted movement, difficult conditions and growing mental health problems after years of uncertainty.

The Iranian conflict has added another layer of fear, with missiles flying overhead and debris reportedly reaching residential areas. “There’s missile fragments falling on people’s homes; there’s loud noises and uncertainty,” Jamshidi said.

One White House proposal would send the refugees from Qatar to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, effectively leaving them to rebuild their lives there. Jamshidi served at the U.S. Embassy in Kinshasa in 2018 and knows firsthand why that idea is hardly a serious answer.

“I know the conditions there, and it’s even worse than some areas in Afghanistan,” he said. Shipping people to another unstable environment would not resolve America’s unfinished obligation to properly vetted partners and military families.

Bacon and Texas Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson said a discharge petition would be filed “soon,” although neither offered a firm timeline. Both lawmakers said the ultimate objective remains permanent American resettlement for Afghan allies who meet eligibility requirements.

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The Qatari air force will begin training F-15 Strike Eagle pilots at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho. Photo by Staff Sgt. Zachary Willis

Jamshidi belongs to a group chat involving troops and veterans whose relatives remain at Camp As Sayliyah. He said the conversation has largely fallen silent as frustration and fading hope replace the expectation that Washington will finally keep its word.

“As a Marine, I understand what it means to keep your promise and to stand by our coalition, our partners who served us and who supported us, who sacrificed their life for us, and how important that is,” Jamshidi said. “So I’m going to continue fighting for that.”

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Iran War Exposes Years of Crippling Navy Readiness Failures

Years of relentless operations, delayed maintenance, manpower shortages and sluggish shipbuilding have left the United States Navy stretched dangerously thin.

The war with Iran did not create those failures, but it exposed them with brutal clarity as sailors absorbed extended deployments, scarce supplies and mounting fatigue.

Families of sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln raised alarms after the carrier spent roughly 250 days without a port visit, with reports that at least two sailors attempted to jump overboard.

Asked about the deployment, President Donald Trump said it was “not nearly long enough.”

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle rejected claims that Navy leaders were ignoring sailor welfare. “Sailors first is not a slogan, it’s a warfighting imperative,” he said, adding, “The sustained pace of operations in the Middle East has only reinforced that taking care of our sailors and maintaining combat readiness are inseparable.”

The Navy dispatched the USS George Washington from the Indo Pacific to the Middle East, reportedly allowing the Lincoln to begin returning toward San Diego.

That decision temporarily left the western Pacific without an American aircraft carrier even as China continues challenging United States interests and regional allies.

Retired Vice Adm. Fozzie Miller said the equation is straightforward. “We could use more carriers or less operational tempo,” he said.

“It’s one or the other, but we’re a global Navy with global responsibilities, and so if we’re going to fulfill those, we need more ships.”

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U.S. Navy aircraft attached to Carrier Air Wing 5, and U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning IIs fly over the George Washington Carrier Strike Group as it sails in formation with the Japan Maritime Self- Defense Force as part of Valiant Shield 2026 in the Philippine Sea, June 21, 2026. (Tyler Crowley/U.S. Navy)

The Navy remains what Rear Adm. Thomas Moore once called “an 11 carrier Navy in a 15 carrier world.” With the USS Nimitz expected to retire after next year, the fleet could soon fall to 10 carriers while the Harry S. Truman, Gerald R. Ford and John C. Stennis remain tied up in maintenance or overhaul work.

“We just don’t have enough aircraft carriers right now in this rotation to sustain all the things we want to do, and I think this is a long standing problem,” retired surface warfare officer Steven Wills said. The Optimized Fleet Response Plan was supposed to provide predictable training, maintenance and deployments, but operational demands repeatedly blew apart that schedule.

Government Accountability Office findings showed Navy ships accumulated more than 33,700 additional maintenance days from fiscal 2014 through 2019. Delayed repairs produced fewer available vessels, reduced training time and forced the remaining ships and crews to carry even heavier burdens.

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The ballistic-missile submarine USS Nebraska passes by Seattle during sea trials after completing an extended major maintenance period, to include an engineered refueling overhaul at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility. Navy photo by Seaman Joseph W. Weiser

The Iran conflict added a severe logistics problem after Iranian attacks damaged the Navy hub in Bahrain. A sailor aboard an Independence class littoral combat ship described the situation bluntly: “Logistics was a complete failure the entire time out there, food, supplies, parts.”

Operations shifted toward Diego Garcia, more than 2,000 miles from carrier groups in the Middle East, forcing some food orders to be submitted 30 days ahead. “There’s no excuse for why, if we’re at war, we can’t get an expedited food order,” the sailor said.

Rep. Mike Levin blamed inadequate preparation, saying, “I’ve spoken to a lot of people who’ve been deployed, and you know, the basic problem seems to be that if they were going to use Bahrain as a hub to restock, to get food and to provide rest and all that.” He added, “If that was the idea, well, clearly that didn’t work out. After February, March, the administration should have thought of that.”

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The U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile in support of Operation Epic Fury on March 1, 2026. (U.S. Navy)

Fatigue has become another readiness threat, because machinery is not the only thing that fails under constant strain. “Just like machines, people can break, too,” one carrier sailor said. “They need rest.”

A 2021 GAO review found only 14 percent of surveyed Navy officers received at least seven hours of sleep during a recent deployment, while 67 percent reported five hours or less. By 2023, surface fleet sailors averaged 5.25 hours daily, well below the Navy standard of providing at least 7.5 hours of sleep opportunity.

Food conditions reportedly swung from poor to worse. “It was either undercooked, overcooked or unrecognizable at all,” a sailor said, while former Lincoln reactor operator Parker Moore observed, “These things have been happening on deployments for always. It is bad, but it is always bad.”

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Thousands of sailors may stay in RVs, trailers, commercial apartments or other temporary housing while the Navy renovates barracks across multiple bases. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Kris R. Lindstrom.

Moore said sailors also feared that seeking mental health care could burden already undermanned teams. “They’re terrified to disappoint the people around them,” he said. “If I don’t do my job, there’s only 30 people who can do it, right? So now there’s only 29 people.”

The Navy said it had not detected an increase in suicidal ideation or attempts aboard Lincoln, although additional counselors were sent to the carrier. Adm. Brad Cooper also said Lincoln had the lowest number of mental health cases among the Navy’s 11 active carriers.

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U.S. 7th Fleet’s premiere forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) steams in the Western Pacific Ocean during Keen Sword 25, Oct. 29, 2024. US Navy Photo

Democrats have demanded more congressional access to operational information while criticizing War Secretary Pete Hegseth for restricting unauthorized communications with Capitol Hill. They also objected when Hegseth declined to elaborate on prior descriptions of Iran’s military as “destroyed” and “made combat ineffective.”

Levin argued that previous wartime administrations communicated more consistently with Congress. “I disagreed wholeheartedly with Iraq, but you think about the steps that he took,” he said of President George W. Bush, adding, “You think about Secretary Rumsfeld, Vice President Cheney, others, their consistent engagement.”

For sailors, the consequences are immediate regardless of Washington’s political theater. After helping enforce the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the littoral combat ship will reportedly face additional downtime because repairs were deferred, leaving its crew with the grim impression: “We’re gonna keep you out here until your ship can’t operate or function anymore.”

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The destroyer USS Benfold departs Yokosuka, Japan, on Sept. 29, 2025. Navy photo by Chief Petty Officer Taylor DiMartino.
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Vietnam Hero Earned the Medal of Honor in 1967. Why Did Washington Wait 59 Years?

Retired Marine Maj. James Capers Jr. survived enemy ambushes, shattered bones, jungle warfare and decades of bureaucratic resistance before finally receiving the Medal of Honor. His long delayed recognition became one of the most frustrating valor award battles in modern American military history.

President Donald Trump ended that injustice at a White House ceremony in June, placing the powder blue ribbon and gold medal around the 88 year old Marine’s neck. “Jim, the nation kept you waiting far too long,” Trump said. “So I say to you, congratulations. You made it.”

Capers became the first Black Marine officer to receive the Medal of Honor, 59 years after his actions near Phu Loc, Vietnam. The award followed nearly two decades of investigations, rejected recommendations, congressional pressure and relentless work by fellow Marines determined to correct the record.

Capers had already established himself as a Force Reconnaissance legend before the battle that defined his case. After serving with the infantry in Lebanon, he joined 1st Force Reconnaissance Company and later volunteered for Vietnam with the newly organized 3rd Force Reconnaissance Company.

In 1965, Capers took command of an all white platoon of 20 Marines. Point man Walter J. Doroski recalled Capers introducing himself with unmistakable authority: “Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.”

From August 1966 through April 1967, Capers led repeated patrols deep behind enemy lines. His teams searched ships for mines, rescued isolated Marines under fire, recovered intelligence from a downed B 57 bomber and crossed flooded rivers, mountains, jungles and minefields while evading enemy troops.

Capers received a rare battlefield commission in November 1966, becoming a second lieutenant. He understood that failure would be used against other Black Marines, later explaining, “I had to succeed. … I had to make sure I kept my troops alive.”

Hero Marine James Capers Jr. Finally Receives Long-Overdue Medal of Honor
James Capers Jr. led a small reconnaissance team through an ambush in Vietnam even though he had more than a dozen shrapnel and bullet wounds. Photo courtesy of James Capers Jr.

His final patrol began in March 1967, when Capers and his nine man Team Broadminded were ordered to search for a suspected North Vietnamese regimental base near Phu Loc. The exhausted reconnaissance Marines had already endured months of brutal combat, but his core team volunteered to follow him once more.

On April 3, Team Broadminded detected and withdrew from several suspected ambush positions before its war dog, King, sounded an alert. Claymore mines exploded moments later, spraying steel through the patrol as North Vietnamese soldiers opened fire with rifles, machine guns and grenades.

Every member of the team was wounded, King was killed and Capers suffered 14 wounds and a broken right leg. Despite his injuries, Capers continued firing, throwing grenades and directing his Marines as corpsman Billy Ray Smith raced between the wounded.

Capers ordered ammunition redistributed and called mortars dangerously close to his own position, silencing enemy guns. “We’re not going to die on this trail,” he told his men. “We’re going home, and we’re going home like Marines.”

Using his rifle as a cane, Capers limped toward the evacuation zone with blood filling his boots. He refused to board the helicopter until every Marine and King’s body were aboard, then twice attempted to step off the overloaded aircraft so the others could escape.

Hero Marine James Capers Jr. Finally Receives Long-Overdue Medal of Honor
Retired Marine Maj. James Capers Jr. speaks during the Corpsmen Memorial Dedication Ceremony at Lejeune Memorial Gardens in Jacksonville, North Carolina on Oct. 12, 2022. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Antonino Mazzamuto.

Capers initially believed the ambush represented personal failure, not an act worthy of the nation’s highest military decoration. Yet his Marines knew differently, and later testimony described a leader who consistently placed their survival above his own.

The formal campaign began in 2007, when Maj. Gen. James L. Williams initiated a review of Capers and other members of the so called lost detachment. Missing records, procedural objections and overlapping award dates repeatedly complicated the recommendation, giving the military bureaucracy plenty of paperwork to hide behind.

Capers received the Silver Star in 2010, but officials offered no public explanation for downgrading the Medal of Honor recommendation. Historian Dwight Mears described the awards process as “very mercurial” and “not very transparent,” which is bureaucratic language for a system nobody wanted to fully explain.

The fight continued through lawmakers, veterans, historians and military advocates, even as Capers endured declining health and the deaths of his wife Dottie, his son Gary and close friend James Dixon III. Retired Marine Lt. Col. David Gurfein later organized a renewed campaign built around historical records, congressional action, public pressure and endorsements from senior enlisted leaders.

President Trump signed legislation on March 26 waiving the normal deadline for considering Capers’ Medal of Honor. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins also helped build support inside the administration after meeting Capers and reviewing his extraordinary record.

At the White House, Trump supported Capers as the elderly Marine rose and stood before the assembled guests. The applause that followed was not merely for a medal, but for a warrior whose country had finally caught up with his courage.

Capers later entered the Pentagon Hall of Heroes and spoke for the Marines who never returned from Vietnam. “This is the greatest country in the world,” he said. “I fought for that flag. I believed in it.”

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U.S. Air Force Antarctic Flight Abruptly Turns Back After Russian Missile Hazard Warning

A United States Air Force flight bound for Antarctica abruptly returned to New Zealand this week after aviation officials warned of “potentially hazardous” space activity. The warning originated with Russia and involved a planned missile launch affecting international airspace.

The C 17A Globemaster III departed Christchurch International Airport on Tuesday at approximately 9 a.m. local time under the call sign ICE28. Flight tracking data from Flightradar24 showed the massive cargo aircraft returning to Christchurch at about 11:30 a.m.

New Zealand’s Civil Aviation Authority said it knew the military flight had changed course after the agency issued a Notice to Airmen, commonly called a NOTAM. Such notices provide pilots and aircraft operators with information about hazards that could affect a planned route.

According to the authority, the Russian Air Traffic Management Corporation notified New Zealand officials about the expected space activity. The agency later clarified that Russia had reported a planned missile launch and a potential danger to international airspace inside New Zealand’s Oceanic Flight Information Region.

“As a result, we put in place a danger area and issued a NOTAM to alert aircraft operators to the potential hazard,” the authority spokesperson said. The move supplied the Air Force crew with information needed to assess the risk while operating over a remote stretch of ocean.

“This does not prevent aircraft from flying through the area, operators make their decisions based on the information available,” the spokesperson added. In this case, Air Force planners apparently decided discretion was the better part of valor, especially when Russia was preparing to send a missile skyward.

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A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon from the 480th Fighter Squadron, Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany participate in a training sortie with F-22 Raptors Sept. 9, 2015, over the United Kingdom. The U.S Air Force has deployed four F-22 Raptors, one C-17 Globemaster III, approximately 60 Airmen and associated equipment to Spangdahlem. The deployment will occur from Aug. 28 to mid-Sept. 2015. The inaugural F-22 training deployment to Europe is funded by the European Reassurance Initiative. The F-22s are deployed from the 95th Fighter Squadron at Tyndall AFB, Fla. While these aircraft and Airmen are in Europe, they will conduct air training with other Europe-based aircraft. The F-22s will also forward deploy from Germany to maximize training opportunities while demonstrating our commitment to NATO allies and the security of Europe. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Jason Robertson/Released)

New Zealand’s Oceanic Flight Information Region covers roughly 30 million square kilometers across the South Pacific Ocean, Southern Ocean and Tasman Sea. Much of that enormous zone lies over international waters, where national authorities have only limited power to regulate outside activity.

“Much of our Oceanic FIR is over international waters, where we have limited control over activities,” the spokesperson said. That reality makes timely notification particularly important because aircraft can be hours from suitable diversion airports while crossing the region.

“It is normal practice for Airspace Authorities and Air Traffic Service Providers, provided with such hazard notifications to issue NOTAMs,” the spokesperson continued. Although such warnings are routine aviation tools, a Russian missile launch notice along an Antarctic resupply route is hardly an everyday scheduling inconvenience.

A spokesperson for United States Pacific Air Forces described the trip as a routine resupply mission planned for this time of year. The Air Force regularly uses Christchurch as the main staging point for flights carrying personnel, equipment and supplies south to Antarctica.

Air Force F-22 Raptor, E-3 Sentry, C-17 Globemaster III, C-130J Hercules and C-12F Huron aircraft participate in a close formation taxi known as an “elephant walk” at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, May 5, 2020.

“Christchurch is the gateway to Antarctica,” the PACAF spokesperson said. Its location and established logistical infrastructure make the New Zealand city essential to American and allied operations supporting research stations on the frozen continent.

“Both the United States Air Force and New Zealand Defense Force conduct operations and logistical support out of Christchurch in support of our Antarctic science programs,” the spokesperson added. Those missions sustain teams working in one of the planet’s most isolated and unforgiving environments.

The turnaround occurred during the Air Force’s annual Winter Fly in period, commonly known as WinFly. Conducted near the end of August, the operation moves advance teams, equipment and cargo to McMurdo Station and Scott Base before the primary Antarctic research season.

PACAF did not confirm whether ICE28 was directly assigned to WinFly. However, an Air Force release from 2012 reported that a C 17 delivered more than 300 passengers and 230,000 pounds of cargo to Antarctica during that year’s operation.

“Using Christchurch International Airport, New Zealand as the base of operations, the mission of WinFly is to deliver advance teams and cargo to the remote research center in preparation for the main season of Operation Deep Freeze,” the release reads. Operation Deep Freeze supports the United States Antarctic Program, which is managed by the National Science Foundation and enables continuous scientific work in the region.

The Boeing C 17 Globemaster III is built to rapidly transport troops and heavy cargo to major operating locations or forward bases. It can also perform tactical airlift, airdrop and aeromedical evacuation missions, but even that workhorse does not need to gamble with a Russian missile hazard over empty southern seas.


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