A study published by WalletHub compared U.S. states to see which had the most power in the up-coming 2024 election. The results may surprise you.
“No matter where you live, you should vote in the upcoming election, as it’s your civic duty and gives you a chance to have a say in our political system. At the same time, it’s evident that not all votes hold the same weight. The top five states where residents’ votes will have the biggest impact in the 2024 election are all fiercely-contested battleground states: Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. If you live in one of these states, you could quite literally have the fate of the election in your hands,” said WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo.
The study deserves some criticism for not including Pennsylvania. As statistician Nate Silver points out, Trump’s odds of winning the White House are 96% if he wins Pennsylvania.
To uncover these results, WalletHub created a formula known as the Voter Power Score (VPS). Calculations were based on the Presidential Election VPS: [(Win Probability Score x Number of Electors) / Total Population Aged 18 & Older] x 1,000,000; and the Senate Election VPS: [(Win Probability Score x Number of Senators) / Total Population Aged 18 & Older] x 1,000,000. This means pretty much nothing to us either. Apparently the metrics included the “win probabilities” calculated by YouGov. Math was applied, and the results were revealed. You can read the full methodology here.
Wyoming, West Virginia, Washington D.C., Oklahoma, and North Dakota ranked as the least powerful voters by state in the presidential elections. For the senate elections, voters in California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania ranked as least powerful. But according to WalletHub’s methodology, a score of 0 simply denotes “states with zero chance of one party determining the election.”
