The U.S. Marine Corps plan to reorganize for small unit expeditionary warfare has faced sharp criticism from traditionalists concerned that the service could sacrifice important capabilities.
Chinese naval officers, however, see a serious challenge taking shape across the Pacific.
A recent U.S. Navy translation of a 2023 Chinese military journal article described the potential consequences of Marine Stand-In Forces positioned on Pacific islands.
“The USMC’s continuous refinement of the SIF concept and optimization of deployment and operational employment will erode our land-enabled advantages in sea denial, make it more difficult for us to breach island chain blockades, induce rapid depletion of our combat resources, and complicate our operating environment,” the article stated.
Senior Captains Yue Zhiqiang, Wang Li and Li Jinqia wrote the article in the journal Military Art.
The China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College translated the piece.
“This escalates the real-world threats facing us and we must maintain strategic resolve and respond proactively and effectively,” the three authors wrote.
Their assessment presents the Marine concept as a direct complication for Chinese operations rather than the hollowed out force feared by some American critics.
Stand-In Forces formed the centerpiece of Force Design 2030, the Marine Corps plan first released in 2020.
Instead of the large, mechanized Marine operations associated with World War II, Korea and Vietnam, the plan calls for light infantry and small, stealthy teams operating from Pacific islands.
Those Marines would use sensors and missiles to interdict Chinese naval movements. They would also provide surveillance and targeting information for U.S. naval and air operations.
American critics have argued that the plan could leave Marine detachments without adequate supplies or support and vulnerable to an overwhelming force.
Chinese experts, by contrast, described SIF units as “key assets for deterrence and containment along China’s frontiers” that maintain “a persistent forward presence in China’s near seas.”
The Chinese report paid particular attention to the combination of missiles and unmanned underwater vehicles.
“During crises and armed conflict, SIFs can deploy large UUVs or have submarines launch small UUVs to loiter near our shipping lanes,” the authors said.
“They can covertly ambush or conduct suicide attacks against our undersea forces and large vessels,” the report continued.
The authors therefore recommended that the People’s Liberation Army Navy target Marine SIF units aggressively during a regional conflict.
“To effectively counter the USMC SIF, we should adopt a proactive offensive posture, aggressively expand our operational reach, project forces forward, and apply countermeasures at the source,” they argued. The proposed response includes pushing Chinese forces and undersea combat capabilities as far forward as possible.
The authors also called for China to develop undersea weapons systems positioned in advance. Their recommendations extended to broader surveillance using radar, satellites, underwater sensors and patrol aircraft.
The report urged closer integration among Chinese military, paramilitary and civilian ships to address “fragmented, redundant, and inefficient coastal surveillance efforts.” It also identified China’s massive commercial fleet as a possible tool against Marine forces.
Courtesy photo by Cpl. Nicole Dorrett, Australian Defence Force
“We can conduct maritime deception to overwhelm U.S. SIFs with massive information overload to paralyze and neutralize their capabilities, effectively supplementing our own reconnaissance and surveillance assets,” the article stated.
That proposal would use the sheer volume of maritime activity to complicate the Marines’ surveillance picture.
To answer unmanned American platforms, the authors recommended developing cheap Chinese drones, along with lasers and microwave weapons designed to defeat drones.
“We absolutely must avoid engaging small capabilities with large capabilities, or resource-intensive assets against lightweight assets,” the report stated.
The Chinese authors also focused on the command networks coordinating Stand-In Forces.
“We must leverage our late-mover advantage in cyber and electromagnetic domain technologies to develop offensive capabilities which can effectively paralyze U.S. maritime command and control networks,” the report stated.
Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University’s Watson School, told Defense News that the article reflects longstanding Chinese concerns about U.S. deployments near China’s home waters.
He said the report showed particular anxiety about drones and small combat units potentially diverting Chinese resources or enabling targeting of important assets, including submarines.
Goldstein, who is also director of the Asia Program at the think tank Defense Priorities, said undersea warfare is a major theme in the article.
He pointed to its emphasis on China’s submarine access, UUV capabilities and undersea acoustic detection arrays near Chinese ports and key waterways.
