The political implications of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Donald Trump will be scrutinized by historians for generations to come.
Albeit a decision formally announced only three days after rumors started to circulate, talk of RFK Jr.’s campaign event in Phoenix, AZ, took the media spotlight away from an otherwise lackluster Democratic National Convention.
The independent’s chances of winning diminished to a level where a Kennedy Jr. presidency was all-but off the cards by Friday, August 23. Polls of 15% soon plummeted when Joe Biden announced he would be stepping aside in favor of Kamala Harris as disgruntled Democrats returned to a rejuvenated party. Truth be told, the attempted assassination on Trump probably didn’t help RFK’s chances of retaining anti-MAGA Republicans either.
Nevertheless, Kennedy still retained a small but substantial level of support in the key swing states which are often decided by a finer margin than the circa 4% RFK held. Quite simply, his decision could decide the election.
Just take a look at how Trump has gained since RFK Jr. dropped out: 1.25 points in Arizona, 1.08 in North Carolina, 2 in Nevada, 0.52 in Pennsylvania, and 1.2 in Wisconsin.
The resulting support for Trump has given him an edge in the states he must win to return to the White House, and he wasn’t exactly losing in them in the first place.
That said, it’s also worth remembering that anything can still happen in this presidential election with two-and-a-half months still to go.
