A poll which has consistently predicted the popular vote within a percentage point of accuracy has Donald Trump to win it by around three points.
While it’s obviously the case in the U.S. that the popular vote doesn’t guarantee the presidency, that’s only really the case for Democrats in today’s political landscape. A Republican winning the popular vote virtually guarantees a Republican winning in the electoral college to.
The Gallup tracker monitors party identification in the run up to each presidential election. For the third quarter of 2024, Republicans account for 48% of all voters; by comparison, the Democrats amass around 45% of the electorate – their lowest figure under Gallup’s poll since 1992.
Previously, the poll’s third quarter findings have often matched the popular vote on election day. The 2008 poll, for example, had the Democrats leading by eight percentage points, with Barack Obama beating John McCain by 7.2 points when the country went to the polls. All elections since have seen Gallup’s tracker match the final result by a margin less than one percentage point.
Many on social media concluded that a three-point victory in the popular vote will guarantee the White House for Trump.
Others were less convinced by the polls.
