A poll which has consistently predicted the popular vote within a percentage point of accuracy has Donald Trump to win it by around three points.
While it’s obviously the case in the U.S. that the popular vote doesn’t guarantee the presidency, that’s only really the case for Democrats in today’s political landscape. A Republican winning the popular vote virtually guarantees a Republican winning in the electoral college to.
The Gallup tracker monitors party identification in the run up to each presidential election. For the third quarter of 2024, Republicans account for 48% of all voters; by comparison, the Democrats amass around 45% of the electorate – their lowest figure under Gallup’s poll since 1992.
Previously, the poll’s third quarter findings have often matched the popular vote on election day. The 2008 poll, for example, had the Democrats leading by eight percentage points, with Barack Obama beating John McCain by 7.2 points when the country went to the polls. All elections since have seen Gallup’s tracker match the final result by a margin less than one percentage point.
Many on social media concluded that a three-point victory in the popular vote will guarantee the White House for Trump.
Others were less convinced by the polls.
Doesn’t matter what the polls say. Get out and vote EARLY. The Left WILL cheat. It needs to be so overwhelming the Dems in congress can’t even pretend they won.
If Trump is the popularly winner, I wonder if the states that decided to pledge their electoral votes to the popular vote winner will actually do so.
That is spot on. Don’t believe any polls that say Trump’s going to win easily. They A) could simply be inaccurate, B) could be designed to make possible Trump voters think they don’t need to bother voting if it’s “in the bag,” or C) it doesn’t matter what they say, as RooG rightly points out, the Dems WILL cheat and cheat hard. We need every vote we can possibly get to counteract that.
Democracy Saved.
Rumors of delays on election night are being spread. There is one reason for that warning. A repeat of the 2020 election where they dragged it out until they allocated fraudulent votes where they were needed, then released the results. Evidence of fraud was everywhere. They got away with taking 4 years and destroying our country to serve their needs.
WE should work like we are ten points down to Karmala. When you go to vote you must bring ten people with you to the polls.
VOTE EARLY if you can. If you don’t vote democrats can change your address and send out a mail in ballot. The address will be some small apartment building with a DNC operative that will collect all the ballots that are unclaimed. Those ballots will be given to an NGO that will fill out the ballot, sign it and send it back. If the person does go to the polls on election day the workers there will already have record that you have already voted by mail.
Won’t matter if the election is rigged, again