Polling

Polling

Conservatives Urged Against Complacency As Trump Presidency Looks Increasingly Likely

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Polling data suggests Republican Donald Trump now has an overwhelming likelihood of victory in next month’s presidential election. 

However, conservatives have been urged against complacency as polls continue to lean in the former president’s favor.

A key finding from CNN’s “Poll of Polls” suggested Trump had a 68.4% probability of winning the election. The poll marks bad news for Democrat Kamala Harris, who’s chances are down to 31.6%.

And this is from CNN, mind you.

The Vice President has led her Republican rival since assuming the candidacy from President Joe Biden back in July. A honeymoon period and a fresh face has helped the Democrat overtake Trump in the polls; however, Harris’ few appearances in front of the media, combined with frustration against the current administration, has hampered her campaign in recent weeks.

Trump is well aware that he does not need to win the popular vote to win the presidency. He is also performing better than in his two previous campaigns – both of which saw a closer result than polls expected. Truth be told, it’s likely the former president will re-enter the White House on January 20, 2024. 

Nevertheless, conservatives are pushing for every vote as the election looms ever closer. If the polls continue to lean in Trump’s favor, there’s a risk voter apathy may creep in, subsequently allowing Harris to sneak into the White House.

Spread the word, and make sure you cast your vote.

Polling

Latino Voters Are Leaving The Democrats For The GOP at Historic Pace

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Latino voters are hastily leaving the Democrats in a major blow to Kamala Harris.

An NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll found that 54% of Latino voters planned to vote for the Vice President, giving her a 14 percentage point advantage over Donald Trump (40%). The remaining 6% were either undecided or planned to vote for a third-party candidate.

While Harris’ lead in this key demographic may seem promising on the surface, analysis of the data suggests her popularity is shrinking compared to previous Democratic presidential candidates. Predecessor Joe Biden amassed 63% of the Latino vote in 2020 – a factor which helped him to the presidency despite a stronger performance among Hispanics for Trump (who got 27% of their vote).

Harris’ unpopularity among Latinos has seen her party’s support fall even farther from when the last female Democrat took on Trump. Hillary Clinton amassed 69% of the Latino vote in 2016, building on the momentum from Barack Obama (65%) in 2012.

Social media commentors offered their own perspectives on why Harris was struggling among such an important demographic.

Others, however, expressed doubt as to whether the seismic shift was such an advantage for the former president.

The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll surveyed 1,000 registered Latino voters Sept. 16-23. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Polling

Historically Accurate Poll Sees Republicans Lead Democrats In Party Identification

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A poll which has consistently predicted the popular vote within a percentage point of accuracy has Donald Trump to win it by around three points.

While it’s obviously the case in the U.S. that the popular vote doesn’t guarantee the presidency, that’s only really the case for Democrats in today’s political landscape. A Republican winning the popular vote virtually guarantees a Republican winning in the electoral college to.

The Gallup tracker monitors party identification in the run up to each presidential election. For the third quarter of 2024, Republicans account for 48% of all voters; by comparison, the Democrats amass around 45% of the electorate – their lowest figure under Gallup’s poll since 1992.

Previously, the poll’s third quarter findings have often matched the popular vote on election day. The 2008 poll, for example, had the Democrats leading by eight percentage points, with Barack Obama beating John McCain by 7.2 points when the country went to the polls. All elections since have seen Gallup’s tracker match the final result by a margin less than one percentage point.

Many on social media concluded that a three-point victory in the popular vote will guarantee the White House for Trump.

Others were less convinced by the polls.

Polling

Trump Leads Harris In Ohio Bakery Poll Which Has Correctly Predicted Every Election (Except One) Since 1984

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A swing bakery which has accurately predicted almost every election poll since 1984 currently has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 15 percentage points.

Busken Bakery in Cincinnati, Ohio, encourages customers to purchase a cookie featuring a resemblance to their preferred candidate. Purchases can be made online or at one of Busken’s four Ohio stores.

Trump maintains around 54% support from customers with 2,953 cookies sold. Democrat Kamala Harris lags behind on 2,134 cookies (39%), while independent candidates have received support from 397 potential voters.

“Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they’re pretty diverse,” said bakery president and CEO Dan Busken to the New York Post.

The unscientific poll does not restrict customers to one purchase, nor are voting rights enforced. Nevertheless, the bakery matches the bellwether state’s consistency to vote for the country’s next president, with Ohio siding with the winning side on all occasions since 1984.

There’s one exception; 2020. Trump won Ohio (and the bakery poll) but lost in the electoral college to Joe Biden. It sure is interesting that the election plagued by claims of fraud was the one time this poll didn’t hold up, isn’t it?

This blip did not go unnoticed on social media.

No matter, conservatives were buoyed by the early results.

Polling

Smug Anti-Trump Former CNN Commentator Ironically Debunked by CNN’s Own Reporting

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This story is like that once popular saying, “how it started; how it’s going.”

Ex-CNN Hack Marc Lamont Hill is your typical leftist academic and media commentator. He teaches “urban education” at the City University of New York (CUNY), whatever that means.

Like fellow academic leftists, Hill is very keen for you to know that he is a DOCTOR. Not the kind the stewardess means when she gets on the plane’s intercom to ask for help; we’re talking about the “I have a PhD” kind of doctor. His website displays Dr. Marc Lamont Hill-Journalist/Scholar/Author/Activist. A renaissance man, in other words. 

There is not a Democrat or leftist policy Hill does not like, and there isn’t a right wing or Republican policy position he will endorse. The Democrats should be grateful to have him in their court, as you can’t buy the kind of loyalty Hill gives to Kam Kam Harris’ joyful campaign for president. 

As the Harris campaign tries to sell the country’s least popular vice president in history as the solution to what ails America (even though she’s been in office co-ailing the country with Biden these four years), critics are pointing out her extreme and radical policies. It’s one thing to lean to the left, but we’re talking about something much bigger. 

Take Harris’ position on whether the U.S. government should pay for so-called “gender transition” surgeries for illegal aliens stuck in prison. Yes, you read that right. During his first debate with Harris on ABC on September 10, Donald Trump claimed that’s exactly what Harris wants—to take taxpayer dollars to do Frankenstein sex-swaps on illegal border jumpers who land themselves in prison. (As an aside, it’s astonishing to even contemplate an illegal alien in a U.S. prison since border-jumpers seem to be above the laws governing ordinary mortal Americans who were born here.)

Marc Lamont Hill just cannot believe how crazy—crazy, we tell you!—Donald Trump must be to make such a bizarre claim. 

Mr. Hill, you may want to take your complaint up with Kam Kam, because Trump was telling the truth. Yes, Virginia, Kamala Harris really does want taxpayer money to do sex-changes on Jose from El Salvador. 

Price’s linked to the following article, ironically from CNN (posted below) confirming it. It seems unlikely that the rabidly pro-Democrat network would get this one wrong; it must have pained them to have to admit that Cacklin’ Kamala really is that much of a moonbat. 

CNN’s Erin Burnett was visibly shocked on air to learn that Harris did in fact support this.

“She actually said she supported that?” Burnett asked CNN colleague and the author of the above article Andrew Kaczynski (no relation to the other Kaczynski) when he explained her support for “taxpayer-funded gender care and transition surgeries for detained migrants.” Kaczynski confirmed that this was true – and that she supported it for federal prisoners too.

Never fear, X is here! Social media users were johnny on the spot to help Mr. Hill out. One might even say they were helping him to “educate himself.”

Polling

Older Voters Most Likely To Be Democrat While GOP Gains Young Adults, Poll Finds

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The GOP has long unfairly been stereotyped as a party for old white men by its critics.

Long-standing beliefs typically portray younger voters as more liberal compared to their parents, with conservatism rising among older age groups. However, a New York Times/Siena poll found that nothing could be further from the truth.

A poll of 1,374 respondents found a roughly equal split among Republican, Democrat and independent voters with approximately 30% in each category.

37% of women are registered Democrat compared to just 21% of men, according to the poll. 35% of male respondents identified as Republican (29% for women) while men were also more likely to be independent voters by a nine percentage point split.

And, most surprising of all, as Michael Tracey notes, is that the demographic that now identifies most with Democrats are voters age 65+ (with only 37% identifying with Democrats), while the demo that identifies least with Democrats is voters age 18-29 (of which only 22% identify with Democrats).

Meanwhile, Republicans get an identical 37% support from the age 65+ demographic, and 26% support in the 18-29 demo.

Whenit comes to voter enthusiasm, those age 65+ were also the most enthusiastic about the upcoming election, correlating with their support for Donald Trump. While party identification is now identical for both parties in the 65+ demo, Trump is pulling more support overall than Harris.

Younger voters have historically supporter Democrats, and this polling doesn’t necessarily mean that’s going to change in 2024, because a large share of the 18-29 demo is likely unaffiliated but left-leaning.

That being said, Harris is on track to receive significantly less support from the younger demo that Biden. When looking at voters under age 35, Biden won that demo by 21-points – but polling right after Harris was made nominee showed she’d only win that demo by 9 points. Bear in mind the “honeymoon effect” was live during that poll.

Many on social media were surprised by the Democrats’ continued support among older voters.

Others noted the trend among younger voters.

Polling

Kennedy Jr.’s Trump Endorsement Sparks Bad News For Kamala Harris

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The political implications of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Donald Trump will be scrutinized by historians for generations to come.

Albeit a decision formally announced only three days after rumors started to circulate, talk of RFK Jr.’s campaign event in Phoenix, AZ, took the media spotlight away from an otherwise lackluster Democratic National Convention.

The independent’s chances of winning diminished to a level where a Kennedy Jr. presidency was all-but off the cards by Friday, August 23. Polls of 15% soon plummeted when Joe Biden announced he would be stepping aside in favor of Kamala Harris as disgruntled Democrats returned to a rejuvenated party. Truth be told, the attempted assassination on Trump probably didn’t help RFK’s chances of retaining anti-MAGA Republicans either.

Nevertheless, Kennedy still retained a small but substantial level of support in the key swing states which are often decided by a finer margin than the circa 4% RFK held. Quite simply, his decision could decide the election.

Just take a look at how Trump has gained since RFK Jr. dropped out: 1.25 points in Arizona, 1.08 in North Carolina, 2 in Nevada, 0.52 in Pennsylvania, and 1.2 in Wisconsin.

The resulting support for Trump has given him an edge in the states he must win to return to the White House, and he wasn’t exactly losing in them in the first place.

That said, it’s also worth remembering that anything can still happen in this presidential election with two-and-a-half months still to go.

Polling

Young Men Are Becoming More Conservative, Poll Finds

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After years of insufferable identity politics from the left, young men are increasingly flocking to the Republican Party according to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal.

The poll reveals a marked shift to the right by young voters since 2013.

Eleven years ago, less than two in five 18-29-year-old men identified as Republicans (38%), with that figure dropping as low as 36% by 2016.

However, Donald Trump’s presidency, as well as Joe Biden’s to an extent, has fueled a rise in conservativism among young men with 49% of those surveyed now aligned with the GOP.

12th-graders have also seen a shift in their political beliefs. While teenage girls have remained predominantly liberal, the number of conservative boys has surpassed liberal-minded adolescents since 2010, with the gap widening to around 10 percentage points once “don’t knows” are factored in.

On a more recent scale, Biden’s tenure in the White House has seen support drop among all demographics and voting options for young adults.

Liberal women aged 18-29 outnumber Republicans by more than 30 percentage points in congressional ballots. However, young men have switched from the Democrats with the GOP leading by 12 points heading into November’s elections.

The trend matches the presidential ballot too. Biden continues to lead Trump by 30 points among 18-29-year-old women, but Trump leads his former presidential rival by 14 points for the opposite gender.

Some blamed the Democrats for this shift among young voters to the right.

Other users noted the huge divide between the two genders with women seemingly becoming more liberal.

Polling

One-Third Of Democrats Believe Donald Trump Staged Assassination Attempt

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One-third of Democrats believe it is “credible” that former president Donald Trump staged the assassination attempt on his life on Saturday, July 13.

As with every major event in recorded history, conspiracy theorists cooked up some ideas of their own over the shooting in Butler, PA. While the motive of 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks remains “relatively unknown,” it is clear that he attempted to end Trump’s life as he addressed voters at the rally.

The events of that day are well publicized. A last-minute head tilt by Trump saw the bullet pierce his right ear, and Trump was protected by Secret Service agents while a counter sniper took out Crooks. Although wounded, the Republican raised a fist (resulting in the now iconic photo) before he was hurried off to a local medical center.

Despite the event’s taking place on live television, and the tragic death of 50-year-old firefighter Corey Comperatore, a staggering 34% of Democrats have fallen for the BlueAnon conspiracy that Trump staged the day’s events according to the Washington Free Beacon

Joe Biden ally Dmitri Mehlhorn has helped spur on the conspiracy, describing it as a “false flag” operation akin to those seen in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Meanwhile, MSNBC hosts Michael Steele and Joy Reid have even suggested that Trump was not shot in the ear.

Many commenters on social media platform X were stunned by the poll’s findings, with most directing criticism towards the distasteful faction of the Democrats.

Others drew comparisons with similar polls regarding conspiracy theories.

What’s your view? Do you think it was a conspiracy theory? Let us know in the comments.

Polling

More Young Men Are Leaving The Democrats Than Ever Before

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Young men are dramatically fleeing the Democrat Party, according to new data from the Survey Center on American Life.

An infographic with the data was shared on social media by X user @eyelasho. Ranging from 2016 to 2023, the data shows a 12 percentage point drop in the men aged 18 to 29 who identify with or lean towards the Democrats.

In 2016, more than half of young men surveyed said they were Democrats. This figure saw a gradual decline during Donald Trump’s first presidency, rising back up to 47% in the year Joe Biden won the presidential election.

However, under Biden, the number of young, male Democrats has fallen substantially by eight percentage points to 39%. Intriguingly, half of this decline occurred between 2022 and 2023.

The data prompted debate among commenters on social media, with many presenting their own ideas for the flight to the right.

One user suggested the Democrats had “two pillars”, namely identity politics and abortion. He implied that young men would be further incentivized by the Republican Party if it reduced its emphasis on the latter issue.

Identity politics was a recurring theme as to why young men may be put off by the Democrats.

Another user suggested that the actual figure of those leaving the Democrats could possibly be higher.

It’s not just America where young men are becoming more conservative than young women. Similar splits have been seen in the U.K., Germany, and South Korea.

Why do you think young men are becoming more conservative? Let us know in the comments.


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