Polling

Polling

Donald Trump Now Holds Net-Positive Approval Rating in Deep Blue State

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Donald Trump currently maintains a favorable rating among voters in the deep blue state of New Jersey.

The Garden State has favored Democrats for almost four decades, having last voted in favor of a Republican in 1988. Trump is no exception, having only amassed around 41% of the vote in 2016 and 2020.

However, last year’s election proved to be his best yet in New Jersey, amassing 46% of the vote compared to Kamala Harris’ 52% – a surprisingly strong result meaning the election was actually closer in New Jersey than the swing state of Arizona.

Now, a new Emerson College poll now reveals a surge in favorability for the President – 48% of the polls respondents said they had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 46% who did not, for a net +2 favorable rating, something thought nearly impossible even weeks ago. A further 6% of voters had a neutral view of the President.

The poll comes amid a historically productive first week for Trump, signing executive orders declaring a national emergency at the border with Mexico, reinstating the Remain in Mexico policy, ending birthright citizenship, ending DEI, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, making the U.S. officially only recognize two sexes, and literally hundreds more.

Many were upbeat by the President’s surge in the traditionally pro-Democrat state.

Other commentors piled on praise for conservative activist Scott Presler.

Polling

“We Did It, Joe!” – Poll Finds Biden Is Set To Go Down As One Of America’s Worst Ever Presidents

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A new Gallup poll suggests that Americans believe Joe Biden’s presidency will go down as one of the worst in modern history.

The poll, taken in December, asked respondents on how they believed each president since the 1960s would “go down in history”, ranking their performance from “outstanding” to “poor”.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, John F. Kennedy topped the charts with a net positive rating of +68. He was followed by Ronald Reagan (+38) and Barack Obama (+21).

Biden’s tenure had an average rating of -35, with more than a third (37%) believing his tenure would go down as “poor”. Just over a quarter (26%) believed history would deem his presidency as “average”, while less than one-fifth (19%) thought it would be “above average” or “outstanding.”

And remember, that’s with the entirety of the mainstream media in the tank for him. Trump faced an unprecedented onslaught, and was still 31 points more favorable than Biden.

Republicans were overwhelmingly critical of the President, but he did not muster much support from independent or Democrat voters either. More than half (51%) of independents thought his tenure was “below average” or worse, while only 44% had a positive view of the past four years.

Only Richard Nixon, the only U.S. President to have ever resigned from office, was deemed to have a worse standing among respondents.

Meanwhile, in the FiveThirtyEight poll Trump has a net positive rating for the first time ever – and given how biased the polls are, it’s likely even higher than it looks.

Many on social media were unsurprised by the results.

Other commentors ranked him behind Nixon.

Polling

Donald Trump Sues Pollster Who Said He’d Lose Iowa Just Days Before 13-Point Victory

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Donald Trump is suing the publication and pollster which infamously predicted he would lose Iowa by three points just days before last month’s presidential election.

Des Moines Register published the findings of renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer just three days before the election, which projected Democrat Kamala Harris to win Iowa – now a safe Republican state – and subsequently the election. Her poll was the only one in the entire nation predicting this result, and given that Selzer actually has a pretty accurate record in forecasting how Iowa will vote, it was nothing short of a shock poll.

But we all know how things turned out – Trump won Iowa by over 13 points, meaning Selzer was off by over 16 points.

Nevertheless, Trump will pursue legal action against Selzer, the Des Moines Register and its owner for “brazen election interference”.

At a press conference on Monday, Dec. 16, the President-elect said the poll and its publication was “fraud”, expressing a desire to “straighten out the press.”

The lawsuit alleges that the Selzer poll was “an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election,” accusing leftist pollsters of failing to use “widely accepted polling methodologies.”

Des Moines has denied the allegations, noting that the poll did not reflect Trump’s 13-point victory in the state. It believed a lawsuit “would be without merit” in a statement to CBS News.

Many on social media commented how the lawsuit came just days after Trump’s successful $15 million settlement against ABC News.

Others disputed the impact of the Selzer poll.

Polling

Demographic Breakdown Of Trump’s Gain Shows Scale Of Shift Away From The Democrats

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A breakdown of the different demographics which shifted towards reveals the sheer scale of discontent towards the Democratic Party.

Not only was the election a blowout – it was a blowout in every demographic relative to 2020.

Traditionally Democrat voters and independent switched towards the GOP, often in 20+ point shifts in some cases when compared with 2012, when the neocon wing of the Republican Party was running the show.

Beginning with race, Black voters were still largely in favor of Kamala Harris with the Democrat enjoying a 72-point advantage over her Republican rival. However, that marked a historic 19-point drop in support compared to 2012. Donald Trump’s largest gain came among Hispanic voters with a 29-point increase, while he gained 17 points among Asian voters and those whose race was not categorized.

Trump increased the GOP’s standing with White voters without a degree by 13 points. Nevertheless, his gains among ethnic minorities was replicated when nonwhite college-educated voters were factored in, with a gain of 21 points. The biggest net shift in his favor came among nonwhite voters without a degree, 35% of whom voted Republican in 2024 compared to just 17% 12 years prior.

While Trump didn’t win over younger votes, he did make gains of 14 points in the 18-29 year-old demographic, and 8 points in the 30-44 demographic. He also gained 8 points in the 45-64 demographics, which he won in 2012.

Trump also gained net votes in every one of the 50 states – and the District of Columbia. In California the gain could top two million when all the votes are counted (and yes, they’re really still counting votes there).

Some on social media questioned whether the shift in support was as a result of discontent with Joe Biden’s administration.

Others called for further insight into the data.

New York, NY – Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former President Donald Trump attended the 23rd anniversary commemoration ceremony for 9/11 victims at The National September 11 Memorial & Museum here on September 11, 2024. Thousands of individuals attended the ceremony to honor the memory of those who lost their lives during the 9/11 attacks. (Released/U.S. Army Reserve Photo By: Master Sgt. Gregory Williams)
Polling

More People Thought Kamala Harris Was The Bigger Threat To Democracy Than Donald Trump

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A core rhetoric of the Democrats’ election campaign was the perceived threat to democracy that President-elect posed. “Democrat is on the ballot” became a rallying cry.

Of course, this came from a side which launched a coup against the incumbent president, and pushed a presidential nominee who failed to win a single primary. It will always be debated, but once could convincingly argue that the Democrats’ opponent was the victim of political persecution – something which, undeniably, is a threat to democracy in itself.

Kamala Harris compared Trump to Adolf Hitler in the dying weeks of the campaign as she tried to lay down the idea that the President-elect was an authoritarian fascist. You only need the election result to know that the tactic ultimately didn’t work.

This anti-democratic rhetoric was picked up by the more leftist elements of the mainstream media. “It’s not alarmist: A second Trump term really is an extinction-level threat to democracy”, was the headline of a Vox article published three days before the election. That, itself, wasn’t a standalone claim, with the New York Magazine repeating the Democrat argument in September. Even now the dust has settled, corporations such as the Washington Post continue to regurgitate the perceived threat to democracy.

The issue was the top concern among exit poll respondents on election night. Yet, quite hilariously, among those who saw this as a top concern voted for Trump.

Trump led by 4 points among those who felt that democracy in the U.S. is “very threatened,” while those who thought it was “somewhat threatened” voted Trump by a 1 point margin. Though to be fair, most Trump supporters see democracy as very secure, with Trump leading that demo by 9 points.

There are several reasons why it may have been Trump voters who were the most concerned. Whether it be the political persecution of their chosen candidate…

… or skipping democratic processes.

In all likelihood, it was a combination of several factors as to why people felt the Vice President posed the biggest threat to democracy.

Polling

Liberals Fear Jill Stein Could Help Trump Win The Election

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Democrats have a new political nemesis: Jill Stein.

The Green Party candidate has not been canceled. She has not posted a meme which a leftist has found offensive, nor has she proposed strict border controls after years of migrant influx; yet, she poses one of the biggest threats to the leftist agenda.

Stein, much like Donald Trump, is running as her party’s nominee for the third time following previous campaigns in 2012 and 2016. Her second effort – during which Trump won the election – was considerably more successful with more than 1.4 million votes across the country.


While that might not sound like a sizeable number, Stein’s presence can swing this year’s election, thus boosting Trump’s chances of re-entering the White House. Such a scenario would be an almost identical replica of 2016, where votes for the Green Party candidate outweighed the margin of Trump’s victory in certain swing states.

Ultimately, the Green Party’s values and beliefs align more closely with the Democrats’ than the GOP. In essence, most of Stein’s voters would be more likely to lean towards Kamala Harris than former president Trump. 

A vote for Stein hurts the Democrats far, far more than it would the Republican Party, and that is problematic for the Harris campaign.

Of the seven swing states up for grabs in this election, leads Harris in three (North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia). The remainder are neck-and-neck, although all bar Pennslyvania have seen small but notable Democratic leads since the Vice President entered the race in July.

However, with a resurgent Trump closing the gap across the country, the two candidates are level-pegging in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Stein’s 1% in each state, therefore, could cost Harris the election, and liberals are in meltdown…

Third party voters also chipped in with their views.

Polling

Is Elon Musk Responsible For Big Tech’s Shift To The Right?

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U.S. Big Tech. executives are politically shifting back to the right.

A graph shared by X user @eyelasho noted a divided political split among tech executives in 2024, with most leaning heavily to the left or right. Such support for conservative ideas has not been seen among such a group since the turn of the century.

As the chart shows, in 2000 tech execs tended to donate mainly to moderate candidates, while by 2016 they were *heavily* favoring Democrats, which continued in 2020. However in 2024 a rift opened up, and a number of high profile figures in Silicon Valley have poured money into the Trump campaign.

According to the Financial Times, which is the source of the above chart:

Using data on millions of political donations made by tens of thousands of executives, board members and senior managers since 2001, Steel finds that the median US CEO is no longer solidly on the right. Instead, he or she is now a political moderate, while senior managers today are overwhelmingly left-leaning.

The share of companies with overwhelmingly left-leaning or right-leaning leadership teams is rising, leading to increased rates of disruption when political misfits leave or are pushed out.

The recent splintering of Silicon Valley into an increasingly outspoken conservative venture capital industry and a still left-leaning broader tech sector appears emblematic of this wider trend. Recent changes to Elon Musk’s social media platform X are a reminder that corporations embodying the values of their leadership will not always point in a progressive direction.

The article also had some interesting data on how CEOs and senior managers in general have been leaning politically in the U.S., indicating that CEOs are generally right-wing, and senior managers left-wing.

One social media immediately questioned how accurate the data may be.

However, these are hardly the first data points showing a shift in big tech.

A 2017 Vox article described tech entrepreneurs as “pretty liberal” with three-quarters (75.2%) confirming that they had voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. However, an article from 2022 suggested tech billionaires were shifting to the right, noting a more polarized political climate compared despite strong support for liberals. Interestingly, the article was written shortly after Elon Musk took over Twitter.

Elon’s vocal support for Trump has exacerbated support among big tech executives so far in 2024. The world’s richest man’s beliefs, particularly his commitment to free speech, has led to entrepreneurs becoming more aware of Kamala Harris’ approach to taxation and her largely anti-libertarian beliefs.

Without accurate data, it’s hard to truly measure the conservative shift among tech executives. For all we know, the movement could be far bigger than many believe.

Polling

Democrats Enter Panic Mode As Trump Tightens Race In Swing States

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Democrats are anxious over recent polling data which suggests the race for the White House is tightening in swing states.

Kamala Harris has held a small but noticeable lead over Donald Trump since President Joe Biden announced his intention to stand aside at the upcoming presidential election. A honeymoon period for a fresh face boosted her popularity among would-be voters, but the race has since tightened as the honeymoon came to an end.

This October, Trump closed the gap to what is now a neck-and-neck race between the two, with bookmakers leaning towards the Republican as the next president-elect of the United States.

On Friday CNN shared the latest data on three swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The latter with its 19 electoral college votes is deemed crucial for both Trump and Harris, while Michigan and Wisconsin have been the Democrat’s strongest states of the seven up for grabs.

Harris’ 2-3 percentage point lead has shrunk to just over one point in all three, marking bad news for the Vice President’s hopes for re-election. Moreover, her one-point lead is a stark contrast to 2016 and 2020, where Hillary Clinton and Biden led by eight and seven points at this stage respectively. Trump would go on to perform considerably better than polls suggested in both elections.

CNN also found that Democrats were more likely to be upset if Trump wins than vice versa by a ten-point difference, the findings of which soon became clear on social media.

Others believed the writing was on the wall for Harris’ campaign.

Polling

Kamala Harris Is Performing Terribly Among Muslim Voters

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New data from the swing state of Michigan, the home of the Muslim enclave of Dearborn, reveals the sheer scale of Kamala Harris’ struggle to attract Muslim voters.

A survey of Muslim voters in the Great Lake State found that just 12% intended to vote for the Vice President in the upcoming election. Two-fifths declared their intention to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, whom some Democrats fear could cost Harris her chance at the presidency.

Remarkably, Muslim voters are even more likely to vote for Donald Trump than Harris, with 18% of those surveyed stating the Republican is their preferred candidate. This is despite controversial travel bans implemented during the Trump administration that were hysterically described in the media as “Muslim bans.”

Of course, Trump’s travel ban and the reporting on it damaged his already slim popularity among Muslims voters. However, many are also frustrated with the Biden-Harris administration’s response to conflict in the Middle East, where Israel has launched ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.

The latest data suggests Stein is likely to pick up the pieces from a demographic which is frustrated with the two leading political candidates. Alternatively, others may choose to simply abstain. We saw plenty of that during the 2024 Democratic primary when Democrats were still pretending Biden would be their nominee. In Dearborn, 75% of Democrat primary votes were for “uncommitted.”

As John King said in reporting at the time: “This is just the city of Dearborn, but that is the biggest pocket of the Muslim American, the Arab-American population. This is a place President Biden carried big time in 2020. This is key to his chances of defeating Donald Trump in Michigan.” He added: “In the city, we were looking at most closely for how mad people are at the president. That’s a very significant number out of Dearborn. There are about 300,000 people who live in the state whose family roots tie back to the Middle East region.”  He also explained that the largest numbers of uncommitted voters were in areas with higher Muslim populations. 

The effect of these abstentions was such; Trump got 756,636 votes in the Michigan Republican primary, while Biden got 618,115 in the Democrat primary.  In 2020, Trump got 650,552 votes in the Michigan Republican primary (a 16.3% increase in 2024), while Biden got 840,360 in the Democrat primary (decreasing 26.4% in 2024). And if they view Harris and Biden as one in the same, we can expect more of this on election day.

Speculation was rife on social media as to what the polling data meant for the upcoming election.

Others considered the reasons behind Harris’ poor performance among Muslims voters.

Polling

Donald Trump’s Election Odds Just Skyrocketed

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Donald Trump has opened a near-double-digit lead on the betting platform Polymarket – his largest since Vice President Kamala Harris joined the race for the White House.

The former president’s chances of electoral success have boosted in recent weeks. An unspectacular debut appearance in the highest spotlight saw Harris’ honeymoon momentum dwindle, with polls increasingly turning towards Trump’s favor in recent weeks. Careful steps into a hostile media environment, again with sub-par performances, have certainly not helped the Democratic nominee.

The capitulation of his opponent is not the only reason for the Republican’s success, though. Trump’s campaign has rigorously campaigned in key areas on key issues, and his response to Hurricane Helene has resonated well with would-be voters.

Polymarket’s odds had Trump and Harris neck and neck as September became October. In fact, no sizeable difference opened up until Sunday, October 6 – the day after Trump’s historic rally in Butler, PA. Now, the former president leads his adversary 53.2% to 45.2% – an advantage of 8 percentage points. Amazingly, there’s over $1.5 billion in volume being traded on these bets.

Many called for conservatives to keep up the momentum, particularly in the vital swing states.

Other commentors highlighted the sheer pace of change in the betting market.


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