A survey published in mid-January revealed that business leaders are hopeful that the U.S. will avoid a major recession now that President Trump has returned to the White House.
“The January 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey results reveal that business conditions remained relatively unchanged through the end of 2024, although a larger share of respondents than in the previous survey foresees higher prices going forward,” said National Association of Business Economics President Emily Kolinski Morris in the study published by the organization. “At the same time, the odds of a recession continue to diminish according to panelists, with the downside risks largely tied to uncertainty over the implementation and timing of policy proposals from the new administration.”
Experts Speak Out
A majority (82%) of NABE members said the probability of the U.S. entering a recession is roughly 25% or even lower over the coming year. Some 62% reported no change in recent prices while 30% reported higher prices, the smallest share since Jan 2021, according to analysis by the Daily Caller.
“The survey results suggest a steady-state economy,” NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Selma Hepp, chief economist and senior vice president at CoreLogic, wrote in the press release. “However, concerns remain regarding shortages of skilled labor and a potential for more price pressures ahead. In addition, the outcome of the recent U.S. elections did not change hiring or investment plans for 70% of respondents.”
